Be real, people: the Board members were dismissed randomly!

There are 30 members of the Board of Trustees that we are interested in: 16 retain their position, while 14 have been fired/released/let go/thanked for their efforts/dismissed. Perhaps Synod acted improperly here, you say? Perhaps they exercised favoritism and positive selection in removing members of the board who disagreed with the Commission, while keeping members that would do what the Commission wanted?

That idea is preposterous!

True, members who were fired tended to disagree with the right course of action that the Board should take. True, members who stayed on agreed with the Commission on what needs to happen next. But somebody had to be fired, and it could just as easily have been the fourteen miscreants! In truth, Synod fired the trustees at random, which is the fairest way of all.

Let me explain. There are 30 people on the Board we are interested in. The chance of removing any one person is 1/30. Since they wanted to remove 14 people, the chance of randomly firing one of those fourteen people in the first pick is 14/30, or roughly 50%. If picked randomly, there is nearly a 50% chance that one of the people who disagreed with the Commission would be fired first. There is also a slightly greater than 50% chance that somebody who agreed with Synod would be fired.

But Synod did not stop there. Now we pick again: there are 13 people left who disagree with Synod, and 16 who agree; the chances of picking one of the outcast is 13/29, or roughly 45%. Again, roughly equal odds to pick a Synod acolyte or dissenter.

Third pick: 12/28, or 43%

Fourth pick: 11/27, or 41%

Fifth pick: 38%

Sixth pick: 36%

... and so forth until we reach...

Last pick: 1/17, or 6%.

To find the overall probability of picking these 14 men and women who disagree with Synod, at random, from a board of 30 members, you multiply the odds together. What is the answer?

There is a 0.00000069% chance that Synod fired the Fourteen at random.

You tell me how likely that is. See? Since Synod did not use favoritism and fired the fourteen at random, God really IS on Synod's side.